Workforce Planning Amidst Rising Portion of HGV1 Licence Holders and Persistent Challenges in Logistics

The good news: There are now more than 19,000 CE licence holders than there were when Britain entered Covid in 2020. And more than 60,000 Category C drivers than there were at the height of the driver crisis in 2021, according to the latest figures from the Department for Transport. But no-one in logistics recruitment can afford to relax, with 8,000+ less C licence holders than there were in November 2023.

The period of continued uncertainty of the past couple of years has already carried on into 2025, with the increased employers’ NI contributions and the Employment Rights Bill, which is currently at the Committee Stage in the House of Lords. And if costs weren’t already an issue (hands up if you think inflation is fully under control!), then along came tariffs. This year will be like no other.

So, what is the graph showing? It’s showing the number of C (orange line) and CE (light blue line) licence holders from March 2020 to February 2025. Both these are measured against the left-hand axis. There was a total of over 972,000 C and 625,000 CE at the start of February this year. The C category is higher as it includes all drivers in the CE (Class 1) category – if you have a licence to drive a heavy articulated vehicle you can also drive a heavy rigid.

The dark blue line shows the percentage of C drivers who have a CE licence. As can be seen on the graph, that proportion dropped off during Covid when drivers were struggling to renew their licences following medicals, probably reflecting the older age profile of artic drivers. The dark blue line then starts rising coinciding with the opportunity, from November 2021, for drivers to go straight to CE without the need to get a C licence first. And now the proportion of HGV drivers with CE is higher than it was before Covid started.

A chronic issue in the logistics industry has been the difficulty that newly qualified HGV drivers have in finding work, with a vicious circle of logistics companies without enough drivers and, simultaneously, drivers unable to find a job. So, another piece of good news, really heart-warming, comes from this LinkedIn post, with Blue Arrow complimented on getting newly qualified drivers into jobs.

However, while the increasing proportion of Class 1 drivers is good news for haulage companies operating artics, this situation exacerbates the 7.5T driver shortage, which continues. If you’ve got a CE licence, would you work driving a 7.5T (doing what is often a harder job) or are 7.5T operators going to have to pay CE rates? Here’s links to a couple of pieces that have been written on that topic over the past year; The Decline of 7.5 Tonne Driver Unveiling the Troubled Evolution of 7.5 Tonne Driving and Navigating Fleet Renewal and Driver Recruitment Amidst Declining C1 License Holders.

What is clear, is that the time has come to stop acting like rabbits in headlights and face into the uncertainty. Spring has sprung, the jobs market, despite the geo-political headwinds, is showing some signs of growth, and workforce planning has never been so important. In fact, short term strategies for many Logistics customers aren’t just about workforce planning but navigating sharp increases in their workforce costs. In last month’s Logistics Manager issue, it was flagged that more than a third of transport firms said that their staffing costs had risen sharply in the last 3 months – higher than any other industry sector. Government figures showed nearly 36% of transport and logistics companies have seen an increase in these costs. This figure does not include this month’s NI and NMW rises, which, in a sector where margins are already very tight, leaves very little room for passing on costs.

Forecasting when there is an ever-changing landscape, remains a challenge, especially with so many fluctuations in freight volumes and market changes across the supply chain…. typical trends are being hugely affected by the unpredictability of costs, driven by the impact of global tariffs. Remaining efficient, agile and responsive, can often mean utilising temporary and contingent labour as a solution as this can reduce long term staffing costs. However, finding suitably qualified talent for ad-hoc spikes in volume, presents different challenges, in what is still a tight labour market. Aligning contingent workforce needs with your wider people strategy requires balance. Focusing on a people centric approach that leverages data analysis to forecast your future talent needs, will help to identify any potential skill gaps and proactively plan to overcome them.

Increasingly, the question for many companies is … “How are you going to change the way you go about forecasting staffing requirements?”

Kirsten Tisdale FCILT, Aricia Limited

22nd April 2025

Data sources:

https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/d0be1ed2-9907-4ec4-b552-c048f6aec16a/driving-licence-data